The Introduction of Bismarck's Social Security System and its Effects on Marriage and Fertility in Prussia

Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security case of disability or old age, then State programs against these events should induce couples to substitute away from the allocation wealth. We test this claim using introduction Germany period 1881–1910. Bismarck's scheme had three pillars: health insurance, workplace accident and an old-age pension. Earlier studies typically focus pension alone; we consider all pillars. find system affected fertility overall only via its effects incentive marry. by itself tended marriages, but components opposite effect. For people exposed pillars two cancelled each other aggregate effect was muted. transition; economics;